Dolphin Ratings - Major League Baseball

Explanation: Each team is listed with its record, overall score differential, and its ratings. Brief explanations of the ratings follow.

Schedule The number in this column is the effective opponent strength of a team. In other words, they would be expected to have the same record had they played all games against an opponent of this predictive rating at a neutral site. Because this calculation depends on the strength of the team in question, it is not possible to rank schedules using these values.
Expected Losses For college teams, this number is the number of losses an average ranked (top 15 hockey; otherwise top 25) team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. For pro teams, this is the number of losses an average team would be expected to have against the team's schedule. Unlike the schedule ranking, this value can be used to rank schedules.
Standard Ranks teams in an order such that a team is "probably better" than all teams ranked lower than it. This calculation uses margin of victory only for computing a team's opponents strengths; the team's rating itself is computed using only wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule
Median Likelihood Determines the likely ratings for each team, based on its wins, losses, and ties relative to its schedule. This generally produces the same or similar ratings as the standard ranking.
Predictive Both schedule strength and rating vs. schedule strength are determined considering both the wins and losses and the score differentials. This rating contains none of the biases in the standard rating, but does weight recent games slightly more than past games since those are a better indication of the team's current strength. This rating is the best of the first three for seeing how good teams are, and thus is the best for predicting future results.
Improved RPI Rating The improved RPI formula is similar to the standard RPI, except that the schedule strength is carried out to infinite depth instead of ending with opponents' opponents, thus allows for a better comparison of isolated groups of teams than is given by the standard RPI calculation. It is similar to the simple rating, except that all games are given equal weight.
Scoring. This value indicates how many points a team would be expected to score if it played an identical team.
Offense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team scores. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to score the league average number of points. This does not necessarily rate a team's offensive abilities, as a fast pace in basketball or big-play defense in football can make a team score more points.
Defense. This combines the predictive and scoring ratings to measure how many points a team allows. The number is the predictive rating of an opponent against whom the team would be expected to allow the league average number of points. The same caveat in the predictive-offense rating applies here.
Ballpark. This is an adjustment to the scoring ranking applied at home to account for ballpark effects.

In order to increase early-season stability, the three main rankings, the improved RPI, and the college pseudopoll include priors based on the previous season final predictive ratings and occasionally incorporating preseason predictions of various major publications. The other rankings for college sports do not include priors, and thus can be wildly unstable early in the year. A team whose rankings are affected by this prior is noted with a P following its rankings.

Full Ranking

                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         59 39 522 394  0.017 48.745    1  0.190    1  0.161    1  0.204    1 0.5264   11  0.576    4  0.301   10  0.108   12  0.028
TIGERS       59 40 483 401 -0.020 47.846    2  0.139    2  0.129    3  0.127    2 0.5215   14  0.559    7  0.208   15  0.047   19 -0.051
BLUE JAYS    57 41 450 426  0.005 48.420    4  0.125    4  0.121   12  0.058    3 0.5202   18  0.381   18 -0.021    7  0.136    5  0.242
BREWERS      58 40 467 383 -0.015 47.536    3  0.131    3  0.124    4  0.123    4 0.5196    5  0.678    3  0.318   20 -0.072   28 -0.468
DODGERS      58 41 525 459 -0.020 47.874    5  0.115    5  0.115    7  0.083    5 0.5181   10  0.589    8  0.192   18 -0.026    4  0.307
ASTROS       56 42 425 375 -0.007 47.952    6  0.092    6  0.099    8  0.080    6 0.5169   17  0.411   14  0.027    8  0.133   18 -0.042
PHILLIES     56 42 452 386 -0.027 47.100    7  0.079    7  0.089    6  0.097    7 0.5150   29  0.191   22 -0.136    1  0.331    2  0.471
YANKEES      54 44 516 406  0.001 48.176    8  0.061    8  0.075    2  0.165    8 0.5144    8  0.643    2  0.326   17  0.005   23 -0.098
MARINERS     53 45 464 426  0.016 48.865   10  0.047   10  0.068   11  0.064    9 0.5122    1  0.761    1  0.343   26 -0.214   29 -0.497
METS         55 44 432 394 -0.020 47.924    9  0.049    9  0.070   13  0.045   10 0.5096   21  0.352   19 -0.058    5  0.148   22 -0.073
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PADRES       53 45 392 382  0.002 48.347   11  0.039   11  0.061   17  0.020   11 0.5093   25  0.274   23 -0.147    4  0.187   21 -0.071
RED SOX      53 47 492 440  0.003 49.310   12  0.027   12  0.046    9  0.070   12 0.5065    9  0.638    6  0.226   21 -0.087   13  0.021
RAYS         52 47 464 392  0.004 48.833   13  0.024   13  0.039    5  0.097   13 0.5062   15  0.483   12  0.109   12  0.086   14 -0.006
GIANTS       52 47 402 392 -0.011 48.370   16  0.018   15  0.030   18  0.004   14 0.5051   27  0.236   26 -0.195    3  0.202   16 -0.017
CARDINALS    51 48 448 444  0.022 49.665   14  0.021   14  0.035   16  0.021   15 0.5050    7  0.646   10  0.185   23 -0.143   24 -0.109
REDS         52 47 454 416 -0.011 48.307   15  0.019   16  0.030   14  0.042   16 0.5042   12  0.575   11  0.138   19 -0.054   25 -0.137
RANGERS      50 49 399 347 -0.005 48.515   17  0.007   17  0.005   10  0.065   17 0.5014   20  0.378   17 -0.016    6  0.146   30 -0.529
GUARDIANS    47 50 363 412  0.020 48.681   19 -0.003   19 -0.011   22 -0.069   18 0.4995   23  0.340   24 -0.182   16  0.044   20 -0.067
ANGELS       48 50 429 494  0.012 48.922   18 -0.002   18 -0.008   25 -0.088   19 0.4994   13  0.562   16 -0.005   24 -0.172   10  0.094
DIAMONDBACKS 49 50 510 492 -0.013 48.250   20 -0.005   20 -0.015   15  0.031   20 0.4974    3  0.699    5  0.247   25 -0.185    9  0.117
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TWINS        47 51 412 426 -0.000 48.312   21 -0.012   21 -0.030   19 -0.011   21 0.4955   19  0.379   20 -0.091   13  0.069    7  0.205
ROYALS       47 52 336 367  0.005 49.102   22 -0.015   22 -0.033   21 -0.061   22 0.4935   26  0.271   27 -0.231    9  0.109   26 -0.289
MARLINS      46 51 419 471 -0.006 47.705   23 -0.021   23 -0.042   23 -0.082   23 0.4919    2  0.751    9  0.187   29 -0.350   27 -0.366
ORIOLES      43 54 397 498  0.019 48.722   24 -0.046   24 -0.072   26 -0.137   24 0.4876   16  0.417   25 -0.185   22 -0.089    3  0.309
BRAVES       43 54 404 401 -0.016 47.180   25 -0.066   25 -0.091   20 -0.017   25 0.4849   22  0.346   21 -0.125   11  0.091   15 -0.009
ATHLETICS    42 58 431 561  0.013 50.015   26 -0.098   26 -0.110   28 -0.150   26 0.4825    6  0.677   13  0.044   28 -0.344    6  0.217
PIRATES      39 60 331 399  0.050 50.882   27 -0.126   27 -0.126   24 -0.082   27 0.4791   30  0.053   29 -0.417    2  0.253    8  0.155
NATIONALS    39 59 423 528 -0.015 48.011   28 -0.180   28 -0.158   29 -0.187   28 0.4743    4  0.696   15  0.027   30 -0.400   17 -0.030
WHITE SOX    34 65 352 435  0.000 48.996   29 -0.243   29 -0.229   27 -0.143   29 0.4633   28  0.221   28 -0.353   14  0.066   11  0.072
ROCKIES      24 74 352 599  0.026 49.823   30 -0.364   30 -0.365   30 -0.376   30 0.4394   24  0.338   30 -0.492   27 -0.261    1  0.622
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING

NL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
DODGERS      58 41 525 459 -0.020 47.874    5  0.115    5  0.115    7  0.083    5 0.5181   10  0.589    8  0.192   18 -0.026    4  0.307
PADRES       53 45 392 382  0.002 48.347   11  0.039   11  0.061   17  0.020   11 0.5093   25  0.274   23 -0.147    4  0.187   21 -0.071
GIANTS       52 47 402 392 -0.011 48.370   16  0.018   15  0.030   18  0.004   14 0.5051   27  0.236   26 -0.195    3  0.202   16 -0.017
DIAMONDBACKS 49 50 510 492 -0.013 48.250   20 -0.005   20 -0.015   15  0.031   20 0.4974    3  0.699    5  0.247   25 -0.185    9  0.117
ROCKIES      24 74 352 599  0.026 49.823   30 -0.364   30 -0.365   30 -0.376   30 0.4394   24  0.338   30 -0.492   27 -0.261    1  0.622

NL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
CUBS         59 39 522 394  0.017 48.745    1  0.190    1  0.161    1  0.204    1 0.5264   11  0.576    4  0.301   10  0.108   12  0.028
BREWERS      58 40 467 383 -0.015 47.536    3  0.131    3  0.124    4  0.123    4 0.5196    5  0.678    3  0.318   20 -0.072   28 -0.468
CARDINALS    51 48 448 444  0.022 49.665   14  0.021   14  0.035   16  0.021   15 0.5050    7  0.646   10  0.185   23 -0.143   24 -0.109
REDS         52 47 454 416 -0.011 48.307   15  0.019   16  0.030   14  0.042   16 0.5042   12  0.575   11  0.138   19 -0.054   25 -0.137
PIRATES      39 60 331 399  0.050 50.882   27 -0.126   27 -0.126   24 -0.082   27 0.4791   30  0.053   29 -0.417    2  0.253    8  0.155

NL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
PHILLIES     56 42 452 386 -0.027 47.100    7  0.079    7  0.089    6  0.097    7 0.5150   29  0.191   22 -0.136    1  0.331    2  0.471
METS         55 44 432 394 -0.020 47.924    9  0.049    9  0.070   13  0.045   10 0.5096   21  0.352   19 -0.058    5  0.148   22 -0.073
MARLINS      46 51 419 471 -0.006 47.705   23 -0.021   23 -0.042   23 -0.082   23 0.4919    2  0.751    9  0.187   29 -0.350   27 -0.366
BRAVES       43 54 404 401 -0.016 47.180   25 -0.066   25 -0.091   20 -0.017   25 0.4849   22  0.346   21 -0.125   11  0.091   15 -0.009
NATIONALS    39 59 423 528 -0.015 48.011   28 -0.180   28 -0.158   29 -0.187   28 0.4743    4  0.696   15  0.027   30 -0.400   17 -0.030

AL WEST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
ASTROS       56 42 425 375 -0.007 47.952    6  0.092    6  0.099    8  0.080    6 0.5169   17  0.411   14  0.027    8  0.133   18 -0.042
MARINERS     53 45 464 426  0.016 48.865   10  0.047   10  0.068   11  0.064    9 0.5122    1  0.761    1  0.343   26 -0.214   29 -0.497
RANGERS      50 49 399 347 -0.005 48.515   17  0.007   17  0.005   10  0.065   17 0.5014   20  0.378   17 -0.016    6  0.146   30 -0.529
ANGELS       48 50 429 494  0.012 48.922   18 -0.002   18 -0.008   25 -0.088   19 0.4994   13  0.562   16 -0.005   24 -0.172   10  0.094
ATHLETICS    42 58 431 561  0.013 50.015   26 -0.098   26 -0.110   28 -0.150   26 0.4825    6  0.677   13  0.044   28 -0.344    6  0.217

AL CENTRAL
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
TIGERS       59 40 483 401 -0.020 47.846    2  0.139    2  0.129    3  0.127    2 0.5215   14  0.559    7  0.208   15  0.047   19 -0.051
GUARDIANS    47 50 363 412  0.020 48.681   19 -0.003   19 -0.011   22 -0.069   18 0.4995   23  0.340   24 -0.182   16  0.044   20 -0.067
TWINS        47 51 412 426 -0.000 48.312   21 -0.012   21 -0.030   19 -0.011   21 0.4955   19  0.379   20 -0.091   13  0.069    7  0.205
ROYALS       47 52 336 367  0.005 49.102   22 -0.015   22 -0.033   21 -0.061   22 0.4935   26  0.271   27 -0.231    9  0.109   26 -0.289
WHITE SOX    34 65 352 435  0.000 48.996   29 -0.243   29 -0.229   27 -0.143   29 0.4633   28  0.221   28 -0.353   14  0.066   11  0.072

AL EAST
                                           STANDARD   MED LIKELY  PREDICTIVE  IMPRVD RPI    SCORING     OFFENSE     DEFENSE    BALLPARK 
TEAM          W  L  PF  PA  SCHED  ELOSS  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING  RNK RATING
BLUE JAYS    57 41 450 426  0.005 48.420    4  0.125    4  0.121   12  0.058    3 0.5202   18  0.381   18 -0.021    7  0.136    5  0.242
YANKEES      54 44 516 406  0.001 48.176    8  0.061    8  0.075    2  0.165    8 0.5144    8  0.643    2  0.326   17  0.005   23 -0.098
RED SOX      53 47 492 440  0.003 49.310   12  0.027   12  0.046    9  0.070   12 0.5065    9  0.638    6  0.226   21 -0.087   13  0.021
RAYS         52 47 464 392  0.004 48.833   13  0.024   13  0.039    5  0.097   13 0.5062   15  0.483   12  0.109   12  0.086   14 -0.006
ORIOLES      43 54 397 498  0.019 48.722   24 -0.046   24 -0.072   26 -0.137   24 0.4876   16  0.417   25 -0.185   22 -0.089    3  0.309

DIVISION     W   L   PCT  RNK RATING
NL CENTRAL 259 234 0.525    1  0.091
AL EAST    259 233 0.526    2  0.075
AL WEST    249 244 0.505    3 -0.008
NL EAST    239 250 0.489    4 -0.042
AL CENTRAL 234 258 0.476    5 -0.046
NL WEST    236 257 0.479    6 -0.067

Home field advantage amounts to:
     0.082 points in main ratings (0.058 for semineutral)
     0.012 points in improved RPI (0.006 for semineutral)
Average of 2.65 points per score

Predict score:








Team Strength vs. Time Plot:






posted: Sun Jul 20 05:30:06 2025
games through: Sat Jul 19 2025

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